The oldest roulette systems Part 2

Some folks will try to snag you with the idea that you can somehow decrease this $.48 loss by only betting the red numbers in the third column. The problem is that, while this phony Three-To-Two offers a whopping 22-percent chance of hitting a 15:1 payoff, you’re only robbing Peter to pay Paul. Really, the amount you lose per spin remains constant regardless of whether you play the real or phony version. For the real one, your total bet each time was $25 on a $10 table and your loss each spin averaged out to roughly .2 percent of that. The expected-value loss for the phony Three-To-Two is roughly the same (.3 percent), but your total exposure goes up slightly to deal with the multiples of eight generated by having to bet eight separate props evenly. Assuming again that you’ve found the only French wheel in Europe to accept dollars and have a $10 minimum, you would have to bet at least $24 on Black for every $16 you bet on the red numbers. So, even though your average expected-value loss remains the about same, you’ll wind up losing more money over time. Consider again the expected-value formula:

(-$40 x 10.4995/37) + (-$16 x .5005/37) + ($8 x 18/37) + ($30 x 8/37)=?
(-$11.35) + (-$.22) + ($3.89) + ($6.49)=?
$10.38 – $11.57= -$1.19

So the phony Three-To-Two is out, but it does give us our second piece of advice: Always bet at the lowest denomination possible because, at some point, the expected-value loss becomes so miniscule that it’s negligible. Fore example, on a hypothetical $1-minimum French table where you play $3 on the color and $2 on the column, the expected-value loss is only $.10 for each spin.

Now, once you’ve gotten your loss over time as small as you can get it, the next thing you have to do is overcome it. The best way to do this is to add a little technique that’s vaguely similar to the D’Alembert. We are stressing the word “vaguely” because both practices require you to raise and lower your bets. However, this concept, a true “series system,” has its grounding in statistical theory, not everyone’s lame-brain idea that magical fairies control the wheel. Essentially, it works because, as we know, the probability of the ball landing on a number you bet is very high. It is so high, in fact, that it is actually more probable for the ball to land on two covered numbers in a row (about 49 percent) than it is that you will lose everything once (about 30 percent) or lose everything after a win (about 20 percent). So, if you double both bets after one on them wins, you stand a good chance of doubling what you would otherwise win.

The problem, of course, is that two wins in a row should happen about once every two spins, while a win-loss combination (found by multiplying the probability of a loss and a win) should occur about once every five spins. And, doubling after every win, you will, over a long time, lose about $20 for every $7 you make. The shorthand solution is, once again, to use null betting and this time to wait out after every second win until the next string of two losses occurs; at the beginning of a session, you always assume you’ve won twice already and wait for the first two-loss string before betting. If you win, you’ll double your bet, and if you win again, you’ll stop until the next set of two losses shows up. If three losses in a row do occur (i.e. you get hit with one of them), bet again, and if a four-loss string hits, leave the table. This will decrease your number of regular losses because three wins in a row will only happen about as often as a single loss (both should occur about once every three spins) and, after that second win, your bets become fair game. Meanwhile, it pits the probabilities of winning once (again, 70 percent) and winning after a loss (about 20 percent) against the probability of three losses in a row (about 3 percent), making the casino work extra hard to keep up with you.

Lastly, the Three-To-Two is a grinding system. Even at its best, you won’t walk away with the big hull, but rather, with a tiny bit of extra spending money. Occasionally, too, you’ll have a bad day just like with the Martingale. In this case, however, the Law of Big Numbers won’t give you much protection because you will average a tiny loss for each spin. Our advice, then, is that you set your bankroll at about eight times your initial bet and only allow yourself two losses before quitting. Also, if you play the system and everything is working plus-perfectly, set a win goal of 100 percent your bankroll for that session. (If you bring $8 to a $1 table and are up $8, leave). It may not be very much money. But at least you’ll be in the black.

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